Demographic Dynamics in the Far East of Russia: Stable Trends and New Challenges

Abstract

The article analyzes the long-term trend of demographic processes in the Russian Far East. It is shown that during 1991-2024, the demographic dynamics were characterized by high stability, maintaining a negative trend. Over a more than thirty- year period, the population of the Far East has decreased by a quarter with the average Russian indicator of 2%. Three groups of subjects are identified depending on the scale of demographic losses. The first, most favorable, was characterized by a decrease in the total population within 10% compared to 1991 (the Republics of Buryatia and Sakha (Yakutia). The second group was characterized by a significant loss of demographic potential during the analyzed period, about 70% of the population (Magadan Oblast, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug). The third group included all other Far Eastern entities, the population decline in which varied in the range of 20-40%. To identify the most unfavorable periods in the demographic development of the macroregion, the dynamics of total, natural and migration growth were analyzed. It was shown that 55% of the total population decline in the macroregion occurred in the first decade of the analyzed period. The bulk of the losses were due to a negative migration balance. In subsequent periods, the intensity of population decline decreased. Since 2020, the traditional structure of demographic dynamics factors for the macroregion has been transformed. Population decline was primarily a consequence of the negative performance of natural movement. Forecast estimates The prospective population size of the Far East indicates the continued leading role of natural processes, the negative impact of which will determine the reduction of the demographic potential.