Short-term and long-term multipliers in the regions of the Russian Far East

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of consumption functions in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District based on per capita consumer expenditure data and population income for the period 2000-2022. Short-term and long-term multipliers of autonomous expenditure are calculated. The standard Keynesian consumption function and the permanent income function of M. Friedman are used for the estimation of the marginal propensities to consume. For both functions, statistical estimates were found to be insignificant for the Magadan Region and the Chukotka Autonomous Area, which indicates not only the absence of a relationship between consumption and income, but also the absence of multiplier effects generated by the economies of these regions. For all other regions, it is shown that the volume of current consumption is determined not only by current income, but also by the consumption trend. The multipliers of autonomous expenditure of the regions are estimated taking into account adjustments for regional import of consumer goods. It is shown that the multipliers calculated on the basis of the Keynesian consumer function are close in value to the long-term multipliers estimated using the permanent income function. It is shown that the Khabarovsk Territory, where the share of expenditure on locally produced goods and services is the highest among all regions of the Russian Far East, possesses the greatest multiplier effect in the long-term period. The lowest values of multipliers are typical for the Jewish Autonomous Area and the Kamchatka Territory. It was also found that regions with the highest (lowest) values of the short-term multiplier are not always characterized by the highest (lowest) values of the long-term multiplier.