Belousova Anna V.

The article solves the problem of quantitative analysis of the reactions of regional dynamics to changes in external demand, including shock ones. Two sectors are distinguished in the economy of the region within the framework of the export base theory: specialized activities determine the base sector, whose products make up regional exports; the total of other industries is considered as a non-base sector - servicing industries, whose products are the subject of outgoing foreign trade transactions, and local demand. The identifi of the base sector is carried out traditionally, using a simple localization coeffi Estimates of the multiplicative effects for the gross regional product and economic employment generated by the branches of the basic sector were obtained for the model region, the Far Eastern constituent entity of the Russian Federation, Khabarovsk Territory. The research tool is the intersectoral balance model, the data for which are obtained by regionalizing the indicators of the national input-output tables using the method of Flegg localization coeffi (FLQ+) modifi by the authors. The quantitative identifi of the estimated multiplicative effects structure in the sector projection was carried out, which made it possible to identify the directions and magnitude of the impulses generated by external demand. The premise of limited labor resources has determined the trajectories of diversifi of the basic sector of the region. The criteria for the inclusion of industries in the sector were: proximity of the values of localization coeffi to a single threshold, comparative superiority of the values of the multipliers of gross value added, comparative «lag» of the values of employment multipliers. It is shown that, in the conditions of the Khabarovsk Territory, the prospects for expanding the basic sector are associated with the inclusion of mining in its composition. The obtained research results can serve as a platform for the formation of regional policy measures aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth in the region.

The article presents results of the study aimed at testing a methodological approach to selecting facts for modeling population dynamics based on their ranking according to the degree of «statistical priority» in the economy. The main hypothesis was that if the rank of one factor exceeds the rank of another, then the first factor should be taken into account when modeling the resulting feature. The study took the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation as an example, based on data for 2016-2022. The spatial heterogeneity and dynamics of the hierarchy of factors of the population of the Far East, their differences at different levels of decomposition of the object of study were quantitatively identified. The obtained results showed that the fact ranking could act as a criterion for selecting the latter in a linear additive regression model of the corresponding indicator.

The article presents estimates of the potential damage from demographic losses as a result of mortality and population migration for the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District as a whole and its constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The “retiring” population was considered as a producer of regional supply (production factor) and a producer of regional demand (consumer of fi products). Using econometric analysis of the linearized Cobb-Douglas function, built on the basis of a panel data structure, a quantitative analysis of the decline in GRP with a reduction in the number of employed population aged 15-72 years was carried out for the period 2017-2021. Less sensitive to population mortality were resource regions whose specialized types of economic activity are characterized by relatively high capital intensity (the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Kamchatka territory, the Magadan and Sakhalin regions, the Chukotka autonomous region). Losses in regional production due to the population loss as a result of migration exceeded losses from mortality in the all Far-Eastern regions. The highest potential economic damage was received in the Republic of Buryatia, the Trans-Baikal, Primorskiy and Khabarovsk territories, and the Jewish autonomous region. Using the method of commodity balances, taking into account the counter trade fl by T. Cronenberg and its subsequent hybridization, estimates of decrease in the regional output by the age groups of population for 2019 and 2020 were obtained. The main contribution to the total loss of regional output was made by the population over working age (in case of mortality) and the able-bodied (in case of migration).

The article is devoted to a quantitative assessment of the impact of mortality of the working-age population on the economy of the Far-Eastern regions of the Russian Federation. The results of analysis of the demographic situation in the Far East in the prepandemic and pandemic period are presented. It is shown that the negative demographic trend in the macro-region persists. Moreover, the rate of population decline in the Far East is increasing every year. At the end of 2022nd, demographic losses exceeded indicators of the pandemic period of 2020-2021 several times. Using the Cobb-Douglas production function, built on the basis of a panel data structure for 2017-2021, assessment of elasticity of the gross regional product of the Far-Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of population was obtained the employed population aged 15 to 72. Decrease in the impact of employment on economic dynamics of the Far-Eastern federal district in comparison with the period of 2000-2007 was found. Using the appropriate estimates, quantitative analysis of the impact of mortality of the employed able-bodied population on the economic dynamics of the regions of the Far East was carried out. It is shown that in regions with a diversifi structure of economy, the damage from mortality of the employed workingage population is higher compared to the resourcerich regions, where specialized types of economic activity are characterized by the relatively high capital intensity.

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of multiplier effects in the economy of the Far-Eastern federal district, generated by exogenous changes, on the household income. The Khabarovsk territory was chosen as a model region, which has a set of geographical, economic, social, including demographic, characteristics typical for the entire line of the Far-Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation. The main research method is a balance structural modeling based on the principles of national accounting methodology. Experimental assessment of the matrix of financial flows of the Khabarovsk territory is carried out, taking into account disaggregation of the household account, namely, distribution of the income by 20% (quintile) groups of population, ranked in ascending order of average per capita income. Using the matrix approach allows not only study systematically financial flows between the institutional units in the region, but also to conduct a quantitative analysis of the multipliers of exogenous aggregate demand, demand for the residents' products, demand for production factors (capital and labor). The time frame of the study covers the 2019-2020 biennium. The scientific interest in this period is explained by an attempt to assess changes in the influence of exogenous factors on the dynamics of incomes of the population, taking into account the effect of external shock in relation to the region - a pandemic caused by the spread of a new coronavirus infection. The obtained estimates identified in numerical terms the relationship between regional socio-economic dynamics and changes in the well-being of the population in the context of its individual income groups. An increase in 2020 relative to 2019 is shown in the sensitivity of household incomes in the region to exogenous changes in gross output and the production factor - labor; decrease - the output of the residents of the region and the factor of production - capital. Income groups that influence the change in the corresponding sensitivity are identified.

The experience of domestic and foreign studies demonstrates the problem of the relationship between demographic and socio-economic factors, among which the growing social income inequality of the population is important. For the Far East as a macro-region with a declining population, the problems of leveling social stratification are of particular value. The aim of the study is to estimate the relationships between regional demographic dynamics (fertility, general and infant mortality, morbidity) and income inequality of the population (in the form of Gini ratio, fund ratio, poverty level). The subject of the study is the subjects of the Federation of the Far East Federal District. As part of the traditional approach to quantitative analysis based on general regression models, it becomes possible to obtain estimates of their modifications - models with fixed effects. The study revealed two latent integral characteristics of social inequality for the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation: “income inequality” and “availability of benefits.” Estimates of the impact of income inequality on demographic indicators have been obtained: common for all territories and fixed for each region separately. It has been established that positive changes in demographic dynamics against the background of increased income differentiation tend to occur at the expense of faster income growth in the most affluent group of the population. It is justified that the implementation of progressive population policies in the macro-region is possible only if the social inequalities are reduced and public spending on social assistance and investment in the social benefits is increased.