Gritsko Mariya A.

This article presents an analysis of the implementation results of the Far East Demographic Policy Concept through 2025, broken down by demographic parameters (population, total fertility rate, life expectancy, and all-cause mortality). It is shown that forecast values were not achieved for all indicators. The deviations in actual results from planned ones are largely due to the effects of the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which resulted in a sharp increase in mortality and a decrease in life expectancy in 2020-2021. Among the Far Eastern territories, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) emerged as the most effective region, with the gap between planned and actual indicators being minimal. The new Strategy for Demographic Policy for the Far East through 2030 and into 2036, adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation in February 2026, was reviewed. This demonstrates the continued national priority of socioeconomic development in the Far Eastern macroregion, where demography is a key focus. The new Strategy sets the strategic goal of maintaining demographic potential at the 2023 level, which entails developing existing and implementing new demographic development tools.

This article presents the analysis of current fertility trends in the Russian Far East, focusing on its constituent entities in the context of government policies aimed at stimulating birth rates and supporting families with children. It highlights a transformation in the age structure of women of childbearing age, characterized by a decline in the 25- to 34-year-old cohort, while the number of women over 40 years old is growing. The current stage of demographic development in Russia as a whole, and in the Far Eastern macroregion in particular, is characterized by a decline in the total fertility rate for second children, while the birth rate for third- and subsequent children is increasing. The Far East and its constituent entities maintain higher fertility rates compared to the Russian average, although these differences are gradually narrowing. The Republics of Buryatia and Sakha (Yakutia), Sakhalin Oblast, and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug demonstrate traditionally high fertility rates, which is due not only to the preservation of national traditions of having many children, but also to a range of measures aimed at stimulating the birth rate and supporting families with children.

The article analyzes the long-term trend of demographic processes in the Russian Far East. It is shown that during 1991-2024, the demographic dynamics were characterized by high stability, maintaining a negative trend. Over a more than thirty- year period, the population of the Far East has decreased by a quarter with the average Russian indicator of 2%. Three groups of subjects are identified depending on the scale of demographic losses. The first, most favorable, was characterized by a decrease in the total population within 10% compared to 1991 (the Republics of Buryatia and Sakha (Yakutia). The second group was characterized by a significant loss of demographic potential during the analyzed period, about 70% of the population (Magadan Oblast, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug). The third group included all other Far Eastern entities, the population decline in which varied in the range of 20-40%. To identify the most unfavorable periods in the demographic development of the macroregion, the dynamics of total, natural and migration growth were analyzed. It was shown that 55% of the total population decline in the macroregion occurred in the first decade of the analyzed period. The bulk of the losses were due to a negative migration balance. In subsequent periods, the intensity of population decline decreased. Since 2020, the traditional structure of demographic dynamics factors for the macroregion has been transformed. Population decline was primarily a consequence of the negative performance of natural movement. Forecast estimates The prospective population size of the Far East indicates the continued leading role of natural processes, the negative impact of which will determine the reduction of the demographic potential.

The article presents results of the study aimed at testing a methodological approach to selecting facts for modeling population dynamics based on their ranking according to the degree of «statistical priority» in the economy. The main hypothesis was that if the rank of one factor exceeds the rank of another, then the first factor should be taken into account when modeling the resulting feature. The study took the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation as an example, based on data for 2016-2022. The spatial heterogeneity and dynamics of the hierarchy of factors of the population of the Far East, their differences at different levels of decomposition of the object of study were quantitatively identified. The obtained results showed that the fact ranking could act as a criterion for selecting the latter in a linear additive regression model of the corresponding indicator.

The article is devoted to the analysis of demographic dynamics of the Far East and its constituent entities over the past decade. It is shown that the time period under consideration, despite active measures on the part of the federal and regional authorities aimed at the socio-economic development of the macroregion and improving the demographic situation, was characterized by the persistence of downward population dynamics. An assessment is made of the components that determine the nature of demographic dynamics. A classifi of Far Eastern subjects according to the type of demographic dynamics and its components is given. It is shown that belonging of the Far-Eastern subjects to one or another type of demographic dynamics is quite stable over time. Demographic forecast data for the period up to 2046 indicate that in the future there will be no fundamental changes in distribution of the Far-Eastern subjects according to the nature of demographic dynamics.

The article presents estimates of the potential damage from demographic losses as a result of mortality and population migration for the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District as a whole and its constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The “retiring” population was considered as a producer of regional supply (production factor) and a producer of regional demand (consumer of fi products). Using econometric analysis of the linearized Cobb-Douglas function, built on the basis of a panel data structure, a quantitative analysis of the decline in GRP with a reduction in the number of employed population aged 15-72 years was carried out for the period 2017-2021. Less sensitive to population mortality were resource regions whose specialized types of economic activity are characterized by relatively high capital intensity (the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Kamchatka territory, the Magadan and Sakhalin regions, the Chukotka autonomous region). Losses in regional production due to the population loss as a result of migration exceeded losses from mortality in the all Far-Eastern regions. The highest potential economic damage was received in the Republic of Buryatia, the Trans-Baikal, Primorskiy and Khabarovsk territories, and the Jewish autonomous region. Using the method of commodity balances, taking into account the counter trade fl by T. Cronenberg and its subsequent hybridization, estimates of decrease in the regional output by the age groups of population for 2019 and 2020 were obtained. The main contribution to the total loss of regional output was made by the population over working age (in case of mortality) and the able-bodied (in case of migration).

The article is devoted to a quantitative assessment of the impact of mortality of the working-age population on the economy of the Far-Eastern regions of the Russian Federation. The results of analysis of the demographic situation in the Far East in the prepandemic and pandemic period are presented. It is shown that the negative demographic trend in the macro-region persists. Moreover, the rate of population decline in the Far East is increasing every year. At the end of 2022nd, demographic losses exceeded indicators of the pandemic period of 2020-2021 several times. Using the Cobb-Douglas production function, built on the basis of a panel data structure for 2017-2021, assessment of elasticity of the gross regional product of the Far-Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of population was obtained the employed population aged 15 to 72. Decrease in the impact of employment on economic dynamics of the Far-Eastern federal district in comparison with the period of 2000-2007 was found. Using the appropriate estimates, quantitative analysis of the impact of mortality of the employed able-bodied population on the economic dynamics of the regions of the Far East was carried out. It is shown that in regions with a diversifi structure of economy, the damage from mortality of the employed workingage population is higher compared to the resourcerich regions, where specialized types of economic activity are characterized by the relatively high capital intensity.

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of multiplier effects in the economy of the Far-Eastern federal district, generated by exogenous changes, on the household income. The Khabarovsk territory was chosen as a model region, which has a set of geographical, economic, social, including demographic, characteristics typical for the entire line of the Far-Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation. The main research method is a balance structural modeling based on the principles of national accounting methodology. Experimental assessment of the matrix of financial flows of the Khabarovsk territory is carried out, taking into account disaggregation of the household account, namely, distribution of the income by 20% (quintile) groups of population, ranked in ascending order of average per capita income. Using the matrix approach allows not only study systematically financial flows between the institutional units in the region, but also to conduct a quantitative analysis of the multipliers of exogenous aggregate demand, demand for the residents' products, demand for production factors (capital and labor). The time frame of the study covers the 2019-2020 biennium. The scientific interest in this period is explained by an attempt to assess changes in the influence of exogenous factors on the dynamics of incomes of the population, taking into account the effect of external shock in relation to the region - a pandemic caused by the spread of a new coronavirus infection. The obtained estimates identified in numerical terms the relationship between regional socio-economic dynamics and changes in the well-being of the population in the context of its individual income groups. An increase in 2020 relative to 2019 is shown in the sensitivity of household incomes in the region to exogenous changes in gross output and the production factor - labor; decrease - the output of the residents of the region and the factor of production - capital. Income groups that influence the change in the corresponding sensitivity are identified.

Despite the measures taken by the state regional policy for the rapid development of the Russian Far East, aimed at increasing the demographic potential, the downward curve still describes the demographic dynamics in most Far Eastern regions. The adoption of strategic development documents and the implantation of various kinds of institutional innovations do not lead to an improvement in the real situation to the level of formed expectations. The Khabarovsk Territory, which occupies

The article examines prevailing tendencies of social development in the FarEastern federal district during the period of active state policy for the advanced development of macro-region (2013-2020). On the basis of statistical information, the parameters reflecting the demographic dynamics and well-being of the population are analyzed in the context of the subjects of the Far-Eastern federal district. It was revealed that, despite the measures taken to stabilize the population and create comfortable conditions for attracting labor resources to the region, the downward trend of natural and migration movement of the population continues. It is shown that the persistence of an increased birth rate in national entities compared to the national average is accompanied by a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age and a drop in rates, including under the influence of adjusting reproductive attitudes against the background of a coronavirus infection pandemic, which is subsequently fraught with a transition to negative performance. It has been established that high mortality rates continue to persist in the macro-region, especially among people of working age, due to both the low standard of living and the poor development of the health infrastructure, which limits timely access to medical care. It is substantiated that the economic conditions during the study period did not contribute to the positive dynamics of the level of well-being of the population of the Far East, primarily due to the lack of growth in real cash income. A conclusion is made about the low probability of achieving the target social indicators stated in the official strategic documents for the development of the Far East.

The demographic aspect of the development of the largest macro-region in the country remains among its key problems for a long time. At the present stage of the implementation of the new economic policy in relation to the Far East, the federal authorities pay increased attention to the problem of the annually shrinking population. The goal of building up the demographic potential, stopping the migration outflow and attracting new residents to the territory of the Far Eastern regions by improving the quality of life is central to many strategic documents. So, in 2017, the Concept of the demographic policy of the Far East for the period up to 2025 was adopted. In 2020, the National Program for the Socio-Economic Development of the Far East for the period until 2024 and for the future until 2035 was approved. At the same time, despite the active work in the development and adoption of strategic documents and the implantation of various kinds of institutional innovations, the real socio-demographic situation in the macroregion significantly differs from the formed expectations. The article analyzes the two indicated documents from the point of view of achieving the parameters declared in them. The main attention is paid to the first stage of the implementation of the Concept of Demographic Policy, which fell on the period 2017-2020. It is concluded that the adopted strategic documents have not yet led to the achievement of the planned results. Thus, the actual socio-demographic indicators during the implementation of the first stage of the Concept of Demographic Policy lagged significantly behind the planned values, while an annual increase in the gap between them was noted. A significant deterioration in the situation occurred in 2020, when a new coronavirus infection spread in Russia and the world. Considering that the unfavorable situation persists and the third wave of morbidity is currently observed, there is a high likelihood of a further increase in the gap between the planned and actual results, which requires adjusting the measures and indicators laid down in the documents of the strategic development of the macroregion.

Sustainable development of the society implies the presence of highly developed human capital, the necessary condition for the growth of which is the creation and maintenance of a decent quality of life, providing a modern and accessible social infrastructure for all segments of the population. One of the limitations of solving this problem is the objective uneven spatial distribution of economic and social resources throughout the country, which is most used in the regions of the Far East, which are characterized by a high differentiation of living standards and experiencing an outflow of the population. The search for an objective connection between the indicators characterizing the development of social infrastructure and the growth of human capital, as well as its adequate assessment, are the goal of this article. The article discusses the features of prevailing distribution of the population and human potential among the subjects of the Far-Eastern federal district. The statistical materials in the Khabarovsk territory analyze the dynamics and components of the Human Development Index, which is officially calculated by the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation. It was revealed that the reason for the lag of HDI in the region from the national average is associated with the low indicators of life expectancy. Based on the standard methodology using the index approach, an assessment is made of the relationship between the level of development of social infrastructure and the human capital index, as well as the human development index. As a result of the study, it was found that between the dynamics of human capital development and the level of development of the social infrastructure of the Khabarovsk territory there is a direct moderate link, supported to a greater extent by investments in the education infrastructure and, to a lesser extent, by healthcare. The limited substantive interpretation of the estimates obtained at the regional level is justified, which requires additional disaggregation and comparative comparisons at the municipal level.

The experience of domestic and foreign studies demonstrates the problem of the relationship between demographic and socio-economic factors, among which the growing social income inequality of the population is important. For the Far East as a macro-region with a declining population, the problems of leveling social stratification are of particular value. The aim of the study is to estimate the relationships between regional demographic dynamics (fertility, general and infant mortality, morbidity) and income inequality of the population (in the form of Gini ratio, fund ratio, poverty level). The subject of the study is the subjects of the Federation of the Far East Federal District. As part of the traditional approach to quantitative analysis based on general regression models, it becomes possible to obtain estimates of their modifications - models with fixed effects. The study revealed two latent integral characteristics of social inequality for the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation: “income inequality” and “availability of benefits.” Estimates of the impact of income inequality on demographic indicators have been obtained: common for all territories and fixed for each region separately. It has been established that positive changes in demographic dynamics against the background of increased income differentiation tend to occur at the expense of faster income growth in the most affluent group of the population. It is justified that the implementation of progressive population policies in the macro-region is possible only if the social inequalities are reduced and public spending on social assistance and investment in the social benefits is increased.

Встатье представлены результаты работы по изучению доступности транспортных услуг для населения Дальнего Востока России. Оценки доступности транспорта, полученные ранее на основе данных официальной статистики, были дополнены информацией социологического опроса потребителей транспортных услуг в Хабаровском крае. Это позволило сформировать более полную картину проблем, складывающихся в части доступности транспортных услуг для населения Дальнего Востока. При этом основными задачами проведенной работы были: изучение динамики масштабов и факторов использования населением различных видов транспорта; оценка уровня комфортности транспортных услуг; оценка экономической доступности транспорта (в разрезе отдельных его видов); выделение проблемных вопросов функционирования пассажирского транспорта. Для сбора первичной информации был проведен индивидуальный очный анкетный опрос населения в основных транспортных узлах г. Хабаровска по расчетной выборочной совокупности (репрезентативная выборка с доверительным интервалом 5%, получено 600 анкет). В статье рассматривается полученный результат по одному из направлений проведенного исследования – анализу ценовой доступности транспортных услуг для населения (в абсолютной форме и в соотношении с доходами опрашиваемых). Результаты опроса показали, что высокие тарифы воздушного транспорта приводят к существенному ограничению его доступности не только для групп населения с невысоким ежемесячным доходом (до 13 тыс. руб.), но и для лиц со средним уровнем дохода. Для железнодорожного транспорта высокая цена отмечена 10,3% респондентов; для междугородного автобуса – 7,3%; для речного транспорта высокую цену отметили лишь 0,3% опрошенных. Полученные результаты подтверждают тот факт, что мобильность населения Дальнего Востока в настоящее время ограничена в силу низкой экономической доступности транспортных услуг, прежде всего авиасообщения. ; Ключевые слова: Дальний Восток России, транспортный комплекс, транспортное обслуживание населения, доступность транспортных услуг, анкетирование

The article presents a general analysis of the results of commercialization of the social sphere. On the example of public health services, the dynamics of the cost volumes of the paid medical services market, the specific weight of household expenditures for the purchase of medical services, and the change in the affordability of medical services have been analyzed. The conclusion is drawn that, against the backdrop of the highest growth rates in the country of the cost volumes of paid medical services, the backlog of demographic indicators of the Far Eastern subjects from the average Russian level is increasing. It is shown that the actually achieved results of the commercialization of the healthcare system are a weighty restriction for the implementation of the state priority for the outstripping development of the Far East, emergence of the basic socio-economic indicators to a level higher than the average Russian level, creating a high quality of life in the region that is the basis for reproduction of the competitive human capital.

The article examines the main trends in the labor markets in the regions of the Far-Eastern Federal District. During the period of 2000 – 2015 the analysis of key labor market indicators: the number of economically active population, employment and unemployment. Distinctive features of the reaction of the Far-Eastern labor markets to crisis shocks in the economy. It is shown that in the Far East is more pronounced than the average in Russia, emerged the paradox of Russian unemployment, the essence of which is the lack of an inverse relationship between the growth of GRP and falling unemployment. Labour market development in the long term to 2030 will face the objectively existing restrictions caused by the reduction of own labor resources in the region and the growth of demographic load.

In this article characteristics of human capacity of the Russian Far East are considered. On the example of subjects of the Far-Eastern federal district the evaluation of the modern level of development of human potential on the basis of an index of the human development added with the parameters characterizing the natural movement of the population, life expectancy, infantile mortality is carried out. Three groups of subjects depending on the existence of potential opportunities and objective restrictions for formation and development of the competitive human potential are given.

The article analyzes the current level of human development in the subjects of the Far East on the basis of data on the Human Development Index. The study shows that the most problematic component of forming human capital is the low level of population health. An explanation of the reasons for the low life expectancy of the Far East, among which are the demographic, socio-economic and spatial characteristics is offered.

The paper reviews current trends in the housing and municipal infrastructure as a factor in improving the quality of life in the Far East of Russia. Distinctive socio-demographic parameters of the region are given. On the example of the Khabarovsk Territory actual funding requirements for capital repairs of housing and modernization of municipal infrastructure are given.

The article is devoted to the research of the birth rate in the Far East and the estimate of factors, which impacts on it. The population forecast until 2030 is made.