А. Грицко М.

For almost three decades, the problem of the annual decline in the demographic potential of the Russian Far East has not lost its relevance. Joining the list of Russia's national priorities in the 21st century and the active state policy pursued in this regard for the accelerated development of the largest macroregion in the country did not lead to positive changes in the demographic trend. Despite various kinds of preferences for potential Far Easterners, their number does not cover the number of people leaving the Far East. The article analyzes the indicators characterizing the change in the demographic potential of the Far Eastern Federal District in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for a fiveyear period of an active policy of socio-economic development of the macroregion. The main components of the natural movement of the population are considered. It is shown that the Russian Far East is characterized by an all-Russian tendency of a decline in the birth rate, caused by the deformation of the age composition of the population, primarily women of fertile age, changes in the intensity of fertility and its age profile. While comparable to the all-Russian general coefficient, the Far East is characterized by an increased mortality rate among the population of working age. Moreover, during the analyzed period, the gap between the average Russian and Far Eastern mortality rate of the working-age population is growing Дальний Восток: новые стратегии и модели развития for most causes of mortality. The high mortality rate of the working-age population is the main factor in the low life expectancy of the Far East. Comparison of real and predicted estimates of the demographic potential established in the Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Far East and the Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation is carried out. As a result, it was found that the expectations of the future demographic potential of the Far East laid down in the documents significantly exceed the real demographic capabilities of the macroregion and will most likely remain unrealizable.

The current stage of implementation of national projects envisages a significant breakthrough in the provision of public goods aimed at ensuring the high social standards in the field of demography, health care and quality of life. The problems of shortages, physical and moral deterioration of social infrastructure facilities, together with the negative consequences of demographic, economic and environmental crises, form the demand of society for modernization and reproduction of modern systems for the provision of vital goods and services of high quality and optimal accessibility for all segments of the population. Geographical remoteness, difficult climatic conditions, low population density and significant dispersion of settlements in the Khabarovsk territory require increased attention to the creation of social infrastructure facilities as close as possible to consumers. Assessment of the potential scale of social infrastructure development in the context of implementation of national projects and possibility of achieving socially acceptable standards for the provision of socially significant services to the population is the purpose of this work. The article considers the dynamics and spatial distribution of population of the Khabarovsk territory in the context of municipalities. Дальний Восток: новые стратегии и модели развития There is a problem of sparsely populated population, which, together with the remoteness and weak development of municipal transport infrastructure, provokes a low level of access to the social services, effectively isolating part of population from the vital benefits. On the basis of municipal statistics in the Khabarovsk territory, the dynamics, scale and level of health care development are analyzed, as well as within the regional differentiation of population access to the medical care and medical services. Assessment of the perspective population, volumes and capacities of medical institutions in the municipalities of the Khabarovsk territory was made, taking into account the construction of health facilities in accordance with the national projects and regional development programs until 2024. As a result of this study, additional characteristics and quantitative estimates were obtained, indicating a low rate of renewal and modernization of the social infrastructure facilities, as well as impossibility of achieving the targets set in the national projects to ensure the high social standards under the condition of the projected population growth in the Khabarovsk territory.