Kulagina Olga V.

This article presents a comprehensive study of the output gap as an indicator of macroeconomic instability on the example of the Jewish Autonomous Region. It made calculations of the output gap, compared the results with alternative assessment methods, analyzed the experience of other researchers, and also determined practical value of the results for regional economic policy. The Hodrick-Prescott fi was used as the main tool, supplemented by a comparative analysis with a Baxter-King fi and the approach based on the production function. It was revealed that since 2020, the region's economy has switched from chronic underutilization of resources to the overheating phase, which requires adjustment of budgetary and monetary policies at the regional level. Practical signifi of the study lies in the possibility of using the estimates obtained to target public investments, predict infl risks and form a balanced countercyclical strategy. This article refl the personal position of the authors. The content and results of this study should not be considered, including cited in any publications, as an offi position of the Bank of Russia or an indication of the offi policy or decisions of the regulator. Any mistakes in this material are solely authors’.

The paper presents the stages of constructing a vector autoregression model (VAR model) for forecasting inflation at the regional level, and a short-term inflation forecast for the Jewish Autonomous Region. For this purpose, a selection of possible indicators for the VAR model has been singled out, and the need for their use has been economically justified. It has also been proved that it is necessary to use fictitious variables to eliminate the influence of identified shocks in the dynamics of inflation. The resulting VAR model has been recognized as sound after conducting the necessary econometric tests. The model has been verified. It is worth noting that the developed VAR model is suitable only for the study of the selected subject of the Russian Federation, since each region of Russia has its own uniqueness. The selection of indicators should be singled out individually for each territory. At the same time, the algorithm for constructing a forecasting model is universal and can be applied to various territories. It has been concluded that it is important to build an inflation forecast, since its impact must be taken into account in financial planning by absolutely all economic agents at all hierarchical levels: government, business, and the public. The views expressed herein are solely those of the authors. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. Any errors in this document are the responsibility of the authors. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without the authors’ consent.

This article studies features of implementation of such instrument for strategic spatial planning in the Russian Far East as territories of advanced development (TAD). The authors present the stratifi of created TAD within subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District and identify prerequisites for TAD creation and its distinctive features. The authors also show features of the formation of TAD in the Far Eastern Federal District in the sectoral context, analyze the performance dynamics of TAD functioning indicators, and identify leaders and outsiders in achieving planned targets in terms of investment and number of provided jobs. As well, the role of foreign investors and results of their activities in the development of the Russian Far East within TAD are determined. The factors hindering functioning and development of TAD in the Russian Far East in general and in the Khabarovsk Territory in particular are identifi The authors of the article summarize the results of the nine-year period of functioning of TAD in the Russian Far East, defi strategic guidelines for regional development. The effects of functioning of TAD of the Khabarovsk Territory are presented, the structure of funding sources is analyzed, functioning problems and obstacles are identifi

В данной статье использован методический подход к оценке бюджетной устойчивости муниципальных образований и ее значение в управлении муниципальными финансами. Проведена оценка доходной и расходной частей бюджета на примере конкретного муниципального образования и анализ основных бюджетных коэффициентов, используемых при оценке бюджетной устойчивости муниципальных образований. Рост безвозмездных поступлений в бюджет муниципального образования «Город Биробиджан» в течение 2015–2019 гг. происходит при одновременном снижении налоговых доходов. Анализ динамики безвозмездных поступлений в местный бюджет свидетельствует, что финансовое состояние муниципального образования во многом зависит от субвенций из вышестоящих бюджетов. Наибольший удельный вес в структуре расходов местного бюджета г. Биробиджан составляют расходы на образование и жилищно-коммунальное хозяйство. Наибольший темп роста расходов наблюдается по группе расходов на национальную безопасность и правоохранительную деятельность, в том числе в связи с усилением борьбы с терроризмом. В связи с отставанием темпов роста доходов от темпа роста расходов бюджет г. Биробиджан характеризуется систематическим дефицитом бюджета и ростом муниципального долга. Бюджет муниципального образования «Города Биробиджан» на протяжении десятилетий носит дотационный характер, и в связи с возросшими социальными обязательствами, муниципальное образование вынуждено брать займы в кредитных организациях, что увеличивает долю непроизводительной долговой нагрузки. В статье выделены факторы неустойчивости исследуемого муниципального образования и выявлены бюджетные риски, ограничивающие его бюджетную устойчивость. ; Ключевые слова: бюджетная устойчивость, муниципальное образование, доходы бюджета, расходы бюджета, бюджетная обеспеченность, сбалансированность бюджета, бюджетные риски.

This paper presents the software approach to the formation of a favorable investment climate on the territory of the Jewish autonomous region, identified the investment potential and the identified investment risks. The analysis of potential sources of investment attractiveness of JAR: the program mechanism of state supports for investors, development of the small and medium-sized businesses, tourism as a generator not only to attract potential consumers to the region, but also contributes to the development of related business. Monitoring the effectiveness of implementation of the state program (hereinafter SP) “Formation of favorable investment climate on the territory of the Jewish autonomous region for 20142020” included the assessment of three sub-programmers: “Creation of favorable investment climate on the territory of the Jewish autonomous region”, “Development of the small and medium entrepreneurship in the Jewish autonomous region”, “Development of tourism in the Jewish autonomous region”. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of each of the subprograms was carried out according to the following indicators: the degree of achievement of the state program targets, the degree of compliance with the planned level of SP costs at the expense of the regional budget, the degree of implementation of the planned activities. The causes of deviations of the actual values of the target indicators of the state program from the planned ones are revealed. The analysis of resource provision of the state showed not the implementation area of their financial obligations. Unlike the regional budget, the Federal budget consistently fulfills its obligations in full. This article uses the graphical method for determining the statistical relationships between the performance indicators of the state program.

This article presents distribution of the created priority development areas by the constituent entities of FEFD and indicators of their functioning, preconditions of creation, the distinctive features of the territory of priority development “Amur-Khingan”. The goals of creation of the “Amur-Khingan” territory of advanced development and the tasks that were planned were solved in the development of the region. The branch specialization of residents of the “Amur-Khingan” territory of advanced development, tax and administrative preferences are determined. The negative aspects, inhibiting the activity of residents on the territory of priority development “Amur-Khingan” are revealed. The author of the article summed up the first stage of the formation of the territory of priority development “AmurKhingan” in the Jewish autonomous region, determined the strategic guidelines for the regional development. The effects of functioning of the “Amur-Khingan” territory of advanced development are presented. The structure of sources of financing of the “Amur-Khingan” territory of advanced development is analyzed. The problems and limitations of the functioning of the “Amur-Khingan” territory of advanced development are revealed. A model of development of the “Amur-Khingan” territory of advanced development with the participation of the Federal budget due to the “backwardness” of the region is proposed.