Estimating the Output Gap in the Jewish Autonomous Region
Authors
Olga V. Kulagina
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, the Far-Eastern institute of management - branch of RANEPA
Автор
Ekaterina S. Lagulova
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, the Far-Eastern institute of management - branch of RANEPA
, Branch of the Jewish Autonomous Region the Far-Eastern Main Directorate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Автор
This article presents a comprehensive study of the output gap as an indicator of macroeconomic instability on the example of the Jewish Autonomous Region. It made calculations of the output gap, compared the results with alternative assessment methods, analyzed the experience of other researchers, and also determined practical value of the results for regional economic policy. The Hodrick-Prescott fi was used as the main tool, supplemented by a comparative analysis with a Baxter-King fi and the approach based on the production function. It was revealed that since 2020, the region's economy has switched from chronic underutilization of resources to the overheating phase, which requires adjustment of budgetary and monetary policies at the regional level. Practical signifi of the study lies in the possibility of using the estimates obtained to target public investments, predict infl risks and form a balanced countercyclical strategy. This article refl the personal position of the authors. The content and results of this study should not be considered, including cited in any publications, as an offi position of the Bank of Russia or an indication of the offi policy or decisions of the regulator. Any mistakes in this material are solely authors’.
