exports,
imports,
resource rent,
crude oil,
sanctions,
risks,
medium-term forecast,
friendly countries,
unfriendly countries,
russia,
european Union,
china
Abstract
The objective of the study is to analyze the current situation and medium- term prospects for the development of the Russian economy based on its foreign trade. During the study it turned out that the Russian economy is characterized by relatively high investment risks and barriers to foreign trade, as well as dependence on the dynamics of crude oil prices, which form the basis of its exports. It has shown that in 2014-2023 Russia faced sanctions (initially “local”, then “large-scale”), as a result of which the risks for the Russian economy increased, foreign trade shifted from the European Union in favor of friendly states - China, India, Turkey, the EAEU countries and Brazil. The study showed that in the medium term, due to the «big country trap» effect, the key factor in the development of the Russian economy is the dynamics of crude oil prices, even under sanctions. The scenarios for the development of the Russian economy in the medium term are being analyzed based on international and Russian forecasts. The main parameters of these scenarios are the dynamics of crude oil prices on the world market and the influence of government policy.
