Чепуров Е.П

In this article, the authors propose a principled approach to the assessment of risk of the forest complex load. The approach involves the construction of "antifragile" system capable of adaptation and co-evolution. Since the forest complex is an open system, the impact of the external environment will inevitably create imbalances and contradictions. Detection of imbalances and contradictions, as well as the assessment of the risk burden on the industry, generated by them, should contribute to the sustainable development of the forest complex. The framework of the approach proposed a new classification sign of risk: the level of mutual influence. So the authors distinguished the private risk (white risk), complex (gray) risk, as well as an integrated complex (black) risk. The author's approach is that the industry risks tend to accumulate and animation, and therefore the consequences of realization of the risks may be of a fatal, destructive. Since the multiplier effect entails the simultaneous implementation of a set of events, evaluation of the probability of such event is extremely difficult, therefore, this approach focuses on the assessment of potential damage, identification and description of complex risks. The result of application of a technique should be forecast, which will allow the user carry out a set of measures to minimize the damage.

In the present article the author on the basis of system approach the concept "discrepancy" in relation to the forest complex as a social eco-economic system reveals. Positions of different authors on a problem of definition of the factors of discrepancy are systematized. In the forest complex these factors are determined as imbalances. Taking into account specifics of functioning of the forest complex, features of the arising social and economic relations and the elements of forest policy, the forest complex is considered in the system of some restrictions determined by the sphere of public administration, techno-sphere, ecosphere, institutional and social spheres. On the basis of it the author's classification of system imbalances which interfere with the normal transition to a sustainable, adaptive development of the forest complex is offered. Also the author emphasized that elimination of discrepancy or imbalances is carried out through the managing influence, and their evaluation is possible on the basis of analysis of the quantitative indices of the degradation processes of economic development of the woods.

As the basic, priority direction of the state policy in the sphere of forest exploitation strategy of a steady development or steady management of the woods is accepted. This strategy is based on the certain principles criteria which non-compliance brings a forest complex into an unstable (crisis) state when there is no economic efficiency and ecological safety of use of the woods. In the present article imbalances (deviations from the principles) in a control system of development of the woods are considered. Taking into account specifics of functioning of the forest complex, features of the arising social and economic relations and the elements of forest policy systematization of deviations is given. For possibility of the analysis of deviations their ecological, economic and social consequences (losses) are revealed and considered. On the basis of the system approach the connection of losses with the managing influence is shown. The general scheme of an assessment of a steady development of the forest complex is offered.