Izotov Dmitriy A.

The objective of the study is to analyze the current situation and medium- term prospects for the development of the Russian economy based on its foreign trade. During the study it turned out that the Russian economy is characterized by relatively high investment risks and barriers to foreign trade, as well as dependence on the dynamics of crude oil prices, which form the basis of its exports. It has shown that in 2014-2023 Russia faced sanctions (initially “local”, then “large-scale”), as a result of which the risks for the Russian economy increased, foreign trade shifted from the European Union in favor of friendly states - China, India, Turkey, the EAEU countries and Brazil. The study showed that in the medium term, due to the «big country trap» effect, the key factor in the development of the Russian economy is the dynamics of crude oil prices, even under sanctions. The scenarios for the development of the Russian economy in the medium term are being analyzed based on international and Russian forecasts. The main parameters of these scenarios are the dynamics of crude oil prices on the world market and the influence of government policy.

The aim of the study is to analyze trade interactions of Northeast Asian (NEA) countries in 2014-2023. The article shows that the NEA market is one of the largest in the world, but not sufficiently integrated. The analysis revealed that NEA is experiencing processes that do not explicitly conflict with each other, but contributed to its trade fragmentation. The obtained estimates pointed to the low intensity of trade in NEA in general and the potential for expanding trade relations, which is constrained by various restrictions. At the same time, for some commodity flows (food products, chemicals, and mineral fuels) there was an increase in the intensification of trade in NEA, largely due to Russia's more active participation in trade with the countries of the sub-global region. The analysis of trade flows and assessment of trade intensity allowed the author to identify the following characteristics of trade interactions in Northeast Asia in 2014-2023: the orientation of the CJK (China, Japan and Republic of Korea) toward trade with third countries and a gradual weakening of trade interactions between them, especially between Japan and the Republic of Korea; general stagnation in trade between the CJK and insignificant interactions between the “peripheral” economies (Russia, Mongolia, and the DPRK); attraction of trade of the “peripheral” economies to China in the context of favorable bilateral political relations, the creation of exogenous barriers to interaction with developed countries for the Russian and North Korean economies, and the absence of other alternatives for the Mongolian economy. The expansion of China’s economic influence in NEA was determined, which contributed to the gradual isolation of Japan in the trade and economic processes of the sub-global region. In addition to the direct attraction of trade flows in NEA to the Chinese economy, China has begun to position herself as the most convenient participant in trade and economic interactions for all countries of the sub-global region.

The purpose of the study is to assess the factors of growth of the Russian Far East (RFE) and the Khabarovsk Territory in 2000-2021. The article shows that in the long term, the rates of economic growth of the RFE and the Khabarovsk Territory lagged behind as a whole, despite the high rates of capital growth and the signifi openness of their economies. The assessment of the production function indicated that in order to maintain growth rates, the RFE’s economy required high rates of capital growth, and the negative growth rates of labor were compensated by other factors. It was determined that capital and neutral technological progress formed the overall positive dynamics of the RFE economy, and trade was its important addition. It was found that the share of trade with foreign countries in the RFE’s economic growth was almost twice as large as trade with the domestic market. Unlike the RFE, to maintain economic growth in the Khabarovsk Territory a smaller increase in capital and labor was needed. At the same time, the economic growth of the Khabarovsk Territory was generated mainly by capital and trade. It was found that the share of trade with foreign countries in the economic growth of the Khabarovsk Territory exceeded the share of trade with the domestic market. It was determined that a large-scale export with low added value had a relatively small impact on the economic growth of the RFE and the Khabarovsk Territory, while import had a noticeable impact on it. It is assumed that with the shift of the country’s economic activity to the East, the role of South regions of the RFE (including the Khabarovsk Territory) as an “intermediary” between domestic and foreign markets may allow them to use their existing advantages to accelerate their economic growth.

The purpose of this study is to test two hypotheses. First hypothesis: in the long term, there has been a tendency to reduce trade barriers between Russia and Vietnam. The second hypothesis: the rapprochement of the two countries took place under the conditions of the negative influence of geopolitical factors on Russia’s foreign trade, which also include sanctions against the Russian economy. It is shown that, despite the small share of Vietnam in Russia's foreign trade Russian-Vietnamese trade turnover had a long-term increase. It was determined that the reduction of reciprocal trade barriers was facilitated by the accession of Russia and Vietnam to the WTO and creation of a free trade zone between the countries. Transformation of the commodity structure of the Russian- Vietnamese trade has been revealed: investment goods dominated in exports from Russia to Vietnam until 2010, followed by the raw materials; in imports from Vietnam to Russia TNC enterprises’ electronic and electrical industry products began to predominate since the 2010th. Estimates showed that trade barriers between Russia and Vietnam decreased (the border effect in 2022 was 55.4 p.p. lower compared to 1995), confirming the existence of long-term trade and economic rapprochement between these countries. It was determined that the lowest values of barriers between Russia and Vietnam were after the free trade zone creation. However, the attraction between the two economies is weaker than with other closer and larger trading partners (economies). The estimates confirmed the noticeable negative impact of geopolitical factors on Russia's foreign trade. It is assumed that trade between Russia and Vietnam, on the one hand, will be restrained by sanctions against the Russian economy, and on the other hand, will be supported on the basis of political ties between the two countries, as well as the specifics of the functioning of the Russian- Vietnamese enterprises.

The study is devoted to the analysis of features and current problems of trade and economic interactions between Russia and China during the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions against the Russian economy. Based on this analysis, the author identified possibility of cooperation between the economies. It was found that for 2022, China's customs data was reliable for determining the value of Sino-Russian trade. Differentiated response in the costs of transporting goods between these countries during the pandemic was determined: invariant - from China to Russia; more than doubling costs - from Russia to China. The pandemic and sanctions contributed to an increase in exports from China to Russia. It was revealed that the main source of increasing imports from Russia to China was fuel and energy goods, due to an increase in prices and volumes of supplies. At the same time, for the Russian companies, redirection of goods to China was forced, and their subsequent expansion of these goods into the Chinese market requires significant investments. Along with the existing endogenous and exogenous risks, for the Russian companies targeting the Chinese market could generate negative effects from monopsony, as well as a decrease in export revenue. In the future, we can expect: an increase in supplies to Russia by the regional-level Chinese companies, an increase of cross-border trade and a reduction in mutual tariff barriers; development of the Chinese market by Russian business, as well as attracting Chinese investment and expanding settlements in national currencies.