Transport complex: experience of regional strategic planning

Abstract

In this article, the authors propose a principled approach to the assessment of risk of the forest complex load. The approach involves the construction of "antifragile" system capable of adaptation and co-evolution. Since the forest complex is an open system, the impact of the external environment will inevitably create imbalances and contradictions. Detection of imbalances and contradictions, as well as the assessment of the risk burden on the industry, generated by them, should contribute to the sustainable development of the forest complex. The framework of the approach proposed a new classification sign of risk: the level of mutual influence. So the authors distinguished the private risk (white risk), complex (gray) risk, as well as an integrated complex (black) risk. The author's approach is that the industry risks tend to accumulate and animation, and therefore the consequences of realization of the risks may be of a fatal, destructive. Since the multiplier effect entails the simultaneous implementation of a set of events, evaluation of the probability of such event is extremely difficult, therefore, this approach focuses on the assessment of potential damage, identification and description of complex risks. The result of application of a technique should be forecast, which will allow the user carry out a set of measures to minimize the damage.