The variants of changes of the transport complex of the Far-Eastern region: comparative evaluation

Abstract

In the article the main concepts of transport complex development of the Russian Far East in the long term are considered (the period till 2030). These concepts are formed on the basis of officially approved documents of industry and macroeconomic trends. Three possible scenarios are allocated: I – minimum (basic), II – maximum (innovative), III – corrected. According to the author the most real development of transport complex of the region is the III scenario. This concept is created taking into account the projects that are already being realized in the field of transport and the corrected prospects. The scenario III is the most truncated concerning a set of projects and their parameters. In fact this concept fixes the only direction of development of the region transport system – to the service raw materials export from Siberia and the Far East to the countries of NEA. Realization of this concept of development contains a number of risks for the long-term development of transport and the region as a whole.