far East,
transport infrastructure,
state regulation of transport,
shift-share analysis
Abstract
Changes in the geopolitical conditions of the Russian Federation since 2013 have affected the country's foreign economic policy. The announced ‘turn to the East’ led to an increase in the volume of work of the FEFD (Far Eastern Federal District) transport complex, which acts as a natural bridge to the Asia-Pacifi region. The main factors behind the increase in demand were: reorientation of foreign trade cargo fl towards Asian countries with reduced interaction with the EU; building more complex logistics schemes for imports using third countries after the start of a special military operation; changes in the transport market due to the departure of major sea operators; changes in the terms of international marine insurance when working with Russia; restriction of international road and rail traffi in the western direction. The increasing role of transport in the eastern regions of the country, the defi of infrastructure capacity formed on the basis of the background of demand growth stimulates the attention of the state and leads to an increase in the scale of applied measures to regulate transport processes. The aim of the paper is to present approaches to assessing the impact of state regulation measures on the features of the transport complex of the Far Eastern Federal District in 2013-2023 and to carry out an experimental calculation. We assessed the impact of the regional component on the dynamics of key indicators of the FEFD transport complex using the method of structural shifts with decomposition. The regional component shows the comparative deviation of the FEFD transport complex dynamics from the national one, which is formed, among other things, under the infl of government regulation. The impact of the measures taken by the state on investment is shown (the dynamics of the indicator is 85% formed by the regional component, while the contribution of the national component was 37,3%, and the industry component had a negative impact of minus 22,7%). The positive impact of government measures on the dynamics of fi assets and employment in the period under consideration is presented. The obtained estimates confi the signifi of the impact of transport development efforts on the macro-regional complex and can be used for analytical substantiation of public policy measures.
