Discussion platform
УДК 332.142(571.6)
How to live and manage in the Far East of Russia?
The debating club "How to live and manage in the Far East of Russia?" has held on April 1, 2016 the scheduled meeting with the agenda: "Problems of social and economic development of Russia. The Far-Eastern projection". The main report was made by V.K. Zausaev, Doctor of Economics, professor, director of the Far-Eastern institute of market by the Ministry for development of the Russian Far East of the Russian Federation. Co-reporters became: E.N. Galichanin – Doctor of Economics, professor, professor of the management and the entrepreneurial right chair of the Far-Eastern institute of management – branch of RANEPA; V.T. Shishmakov – Doctor of Economics, professor, professor of the Far-Eastern State transport university; E.L. Motrich – Doctor of Economics, professor, leading expert of the Institute of economic researches of the Russian academy of sciences. Representatives of the scientific public organizations and public institutions of the Far-Eastern region took part in the meeting. In discussion of the reports took part: S.N. Kravtsov (Candidate of Economics, docent, director of DVIU RANEPA under the Russian President); V.F. Efremenko (Candidate of Economics, docent), V.N. Shiyan (Candidate of Philosophy, docent), etc., all – 12 participants.
Дискуссионный клуб «Как жить и хозяйствовать на Дальнем Востоке России?» 1 апреля 2016 г. провёл очередное заседание с повесткой дня: «Проблемы социально-экономического развития России. Дальневосточная проекция». С основным докладом выступил В.К. Заусаев, д.э.н., проф., директор ДальНИИрынка при Минвостокразвития РФ. Содокладчиками стали: Е.Н. Галичанин – д.э.н., проф., профессор кафедры менеджмента и предпринимательского права Дальневосточного института управления – филиала РАНХиГС; В.Т. Шишмаков – д.э.н., проф., профессор Дальневосточного государственного университета путей сообщения; Е.Л. Мотрич – д.э.н., проф., ведущий сотрудник Института экономических исследований Российской академии наук. В заседании приняли участие представители научных общественных организаций и государственных учреждений Дальневосточного региона. В обсуждении докладов участвовали: С.Н. Кравцов (к.э.н., доц., директор Дальневосточного института управления – филиала РАНХиГС); В.Ф. Ефременко (к.э.н., доц., начальник Инновационно-технологического центра Дальневосточного института управления – филиала РАНХиГС), В.Н. Шиян (к.ф.н., доц., доц. кафедры философии, истории, государства и права Дальневосточного института управления – филиала РАНХиГС) и др., всего – 12 участников.
S. N. Kravtsov, opening the meeting of debating club, have especially noted that created by the Far-Eastern institute of management – branch of RANEPA under the Russian President the discussion platform on the problems of development of the Far East of Russia became that place where it is possible to discuss in a free form not only the problems of today's life of the Far-Easterners, but also to inform them to the different echelons of power structures for the possible solution.
In his report he has paid attention of the members of meeting to the following questions and problems:
It is necessary to carry the low potential of social and economic growth to the special problems of Russia. The reasons of internal growth mean.
This phenomenon is present from the middle of last decade. It is connected with exhaustion of the previous model of growth which has been connected with the availability of free capacities and allowances of the labor market. It used those allowances which the economy had at that time. Now the new approaches probably it, first of all, development of a human capital and institutional is necessary.
One more feature of our economy, and it distinguishes Russia from all rest of the world, – a stagflation situation (stagflation (stagnation + inflation) – a situation in which economic downturn and a depression of economy (stagnation and growth of the unemployment) are combined with an increase in prices — inflation). This situation requires absolutely other mechanisms of overcoming, than in a case of net inflation or stagnation. It is a serious problem for Russia which in many respects predetermines the Russian model of economy for the next years.
One more problem of Russia is reducing a number of able-bodied population of the country. There is a tension in economy connected with the negative migratory balance, what is especially characteristic for the Far East. These problems are very essential as will have a great influence on a general economic situation in Russia.
At the moment economic development of the country restrains low activity of the regions. There is a problem of expansion of a role of regions, activization of the regional potential. Now the population has no understanding of responsibility of different levels of the power as the responsibility "is vague". Finally, the Russian President is responsible for everything. The local authorities in this situation are not considered by the people as the real authors of political and economic processes. And it negatively affects economic development of the regions.
It is necessary also to note that globalization will continue, but it will have more regional nature.
In China the risks are low, and the work is already expensive, and in Africa the work is cheap, but the risks are great. Therefore transition from globalization in the world in general to the regional globalization is inevitable. And it should be considered. At the same time, the inequality of economies and the countries will increase.
V.K. Zausayev – Doctor of Economics, professor, director of the Far-Eastern institute of market by the Ministry for development of the Russian Far East of the Russian Federation.
In our report the attempt to generalize opinions of the leading scientists of Russia adhering generally of the market views of the processes happening in the economy, and from this point of view to build scenarios of development of the Far East is made. So, the point of view of G.A. Yavlinskiy:
In his opinion, in Russia there is "an economy of peripheral capitalism" which is characterized by a support for raw export, dependence on foreign finance and investments, close connection of the power and business, a big role of administrative and corruption rent. Today an exit from the economy of peripheral capitalism is problematic. The political will which would allow take a number of radical measures is for this purpose necessary.
R.S. Greenberg's opinion – The economy of Russia endures the chronic system crisis that is confirmed by a weak motivation of the Russian business to be engaged in the innovations and investments, weakness of the Russian financial system, low technological competitiveness of the industry. An exit from the created situation is possible on the basis of the state support and stimulation of private business in the priority projects.
A.L. Kudrin – Russia strongly yields to the indicators of world economy. Reasons: negative state stimulation, increase of efficiency on the basis of reducing production costs, but not on the demand widening.
S.M. Belousov – In Russia there is an exhaustion of competitive advantages and retraction in long stagnation.
A.D. Nekipelov – In the country deindustrialization of economy in the presence of a considerable rent occurs. Therefore the Government of the Russian Federation needs to be engaged in the currency rate and an interest rate, to use the investment incomes for upgrade of economy.
A.G. Aganbegyan – Fall of a real wage – a serious problem. The salary reduction is necessary.
According to N.V. Zubarevich, in Russia strengthening of institutional barriers of spatial development accrues that is confirmed by a low territorial mobility of the population.
V.M. Polterovich considers that Russia – The Institutionally backward state. The exit from this condition is a creation of the system of national planning.
A.N. Klepach – Stagnation of the Russian economy is caused by a limited nature of monetary and budget management. For example, growth of savings of the population was not transformed to the investments, the banks used them on acquisition of currency assets, transferring them abroad.
R.I. Kapelyushnikov notes that in Russia the specific market model of work in which there is a domination of price adaptation over the quantitative, strong reaction is created from the compensation and weak – from the employment and production.
A.A. Auzan considers that the tendencies of low economic development in the country are caused by the import of low-quality labor power and the export – of high quality. The solution of this problem consists in the development of human capital.
From cited above it is possible to make the surprising conclusion: any of the above-stated elite economists of Russia has not mentioned such important categories as the quality and the labor productivity, and also the growing social and psychological intensity in the society.
What really happens? It is necessary to be inclined to the point of view of G.A. Yavlinskiy about the economy of "peripheral capitalism". Thus, it is possible to draw the main conclusion:
Diagnosis:
- Economy of peripheral capitalism.
Reasons:
- Low effectiveness of use of the major factors of production.
Consequences:
- Deindustrialization of economy of Russia.
- Low investment activity because of the wages rise and decrease in the income.
Actions:
- Need of the cardinal institutional transformations directed to improvement of the quality and a labor productivity, decrease in social and psychological intensity in the society.
- Creation of the system of national planning: federal agency of development (further – FAD) and the regional agencies of development (further – RAD).
- Optimization of the social support and stimulation of development of the economy of Russia.
- New industrialization on the basis of support by the state of the priority directions (projects) and the use of investment incomes.
- Development at the national level of industrial and innovative policy.
- Development of the human and cultural capital on the basis of reducing production costs, but not widening of the demand.
How the Far East of Russia in this situation looks? Unfortunately, it is necessary to state that "the economy of peripheral capitalism" threatens to destroy finally that the little that here is acquired in the recent years, without speaking about a remaining balance of economic potential of the last century. We will provide some proofs of this point of view.
Still made products in the macro-region remain very costly even for the national economy, so, not competitive from the point of view of the major, price factor. It is necessary to carry to the fundamental factors determining the high cost intensity of economy of the Far East:
1. Pioneer development.
2. Near to the North.
3. In the suburbs.
4. Remoteness from a mother's side.
5. Near to the boards.
6. Non-competitiveness with the adjacent countries on the majority of production factors.
Based on it there was serious, if not menacing, system of challenges to the Russian Far East in the 21st century. Among them: Decrease in demographic capacity of the Russian Far East
• Decline in the quality of life.
• Deterioration in the ecological situation.
• Decrease in the competitiveness of the Far-Eastern products.
• Exhaustion of the economically available reproduced natural resources.
• Expansion of goods and services of the adjacent countries.
In the Far East there passes the zone of contact of geostrategic interests of the largest countries of the world: USA, Japan, China. All of them lack either the territory, or resources, or the influence zones. They are going to fill this shortage (meanwhile theoretically) at the expense of the eastern regions of Russia. It can lead not only to the intensity of relations between the countries, but also to the geopolitical threats of integrity of Russia.
Because the measures for the exit taken in recent years from the current situation do not lead to fundamental change, we consider expedient and necessary adoption of the Federal law "About Development of the Far East" in which it is necessary to provide all necessary measures that the Far East finally has not turned into the periphery of "peripheral capitalism".
E.N. Galichanin – Doctor of Economics, professor.
State policy concerning the Far East of Russia is determined, first of all, by the geopolitical factors creating threat of a homeland security of the country in the Pacific Rim (further – PR) that threatens with a loss of the population, on the one hand, and a need in the short term of its active "inclusion" in the globalization process determined by the accelerated accruing tendency of shift of the world economic activity to this region, – with another.
This position is reflected in the Strategy of social and economic development of the Far East and the Baikal region for the period till 2025: "… In the Far East and in the Baikal region only special strategy of the complex social and economic development of this territory oriented to the accelerated growth (on an innovative basis) the economic potential of this part of the country, can render real counteraction to the potential hazard of safety of the country on implementation of the interests of Russia in the Pacific Rim, and also on fixing of the population by forming of the comfortable habitat and optimization of the system of moving".
For the purpose of achievement of this purpose now at various levels of the government various decisions are developed and are already made. Among them:
The presidential decree of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012 No. 596 "About the long-term state economic policy" p. 2, section D).
The order of the Government of the Russian Federation from 4/15/2014 No.308 "About approval of the state program of the Russian Federation "Social and economic development of the Far East and the Baikal region"".
- The list of orders of the President of the Russian Federation following the results of meeting with the chairman of the Audit Chamber of the Russian Federation T.A. Golikova 9/16/2014 in Novo-Ogaryovo.
- The president's letter of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of Russia of December 3, 2015.
Other regulations on implementation of the strategic objectives of development of the Far East, including at the local and regional levels are developed and adopted.
Meanwhile, it is not possible to solve the main problem creating geopolitical threat in the Far East so far – outflow of the population.
The analysis of dynamics of the population confirms the unfortunate trends. For the beginning of 2014 in the Far-Eastern federal district 6226,6 thousand persons are registered. Reduction of a number of inhabitants for 1991 – 2013 has made 22,7% (1830,0 thousand people).
Other negative tendency is that migration in the Far East aggravates the risks in respect of loss of the population of economically active age, highly qualified personnel – persons with the higher and secondary professional education. In a migratory decrease it is noted that every fifth (21,5%) in 2002 and more than every fourth (26,7%) in 2013 had higher education. In a flow disposed out of the borders of the Far East in 2013 there were 77,4% of persons of working-age and 13,5% of persons is aged younger the able-bodied, those who in the long term shall replace the work resources which are disposed from the national economy.
The demographic situation in the Far East began to develop as a result of crisis processes in the economy and decrease in the level of living of the population, transformation of the social and economic environment, low level and quality of development of the social sphere, changes of the priorities in valuable orientations.
The living stahdard in the Far East still lags behind from the average Russian and, for example, in the ratio of the fixed costs on a set of goods and services from the average Russian 79%, and on some Territorial subjects of the federation (the Kamchatka territory) makes 58%. The cost of a set of food in December, 2015, on average, across the Far East has reached 5254,6 rub that makes 146% to the average Russian. The size of subsistence minimum established according to the Federal Law "About a subsistence minimum in the Russian Federation" as of March 3, 2016, on average, across the Far East has made 14619 rub in case of 9673 rub in general across the Russian Federation. At the same time, the highest rate is established in the Kamchatka territory – 18427 rub, and the most minimum – in the Jewish autonomous region – 12228 rub.
The raised salary level at the expense of northern allowances and district coefficients not always solves this problem because of imperfection of the legislation. Employees and workers of the budgetary institutions and the state-owned companies receive the specified subsidies from the federal budget, and private enterprises and firms in which are engaged at the Far East, on expert evaluations, to 70% of the citizens, not always have an opportunity to pay them because of high cost value of the performed works and services. On predesigns of the Far-Eastern scientific research institute of the Russian Federation the Ministry for development of the Russian Far-Eastern market, this amount in a year reaches 40 billion rubles.
High rates for energy resources and transport remain the main costly articles in the cost value of the made products and services in the Far East still. According to the Khabarovsk regional statistic, on all territorial subjects of the federation of the Far East in February, 2016 price levels on the electric power still exceeded the average Russian.
It is not possible to change so far remaining tendency of fall of the production in agricultural industry and in the construction of apartment houses. So, for example, in 2015, in comparison with 2014, the index of production of agricultural industry in general has made 96,1%, including the plant growing – 94,7% and the animal husbandry – 98,3%, respectively, and the input of apartment houses – 88,6%.
As a positive tendency from the main macroeconomic indicators it should be noted a growth in 2015 in relation to 2014 of the index of industrial production. However it occurs due to the mining, generally in the territorial subjects of the federation having the raw specialization.
According to some leading scientists of the Far East, "… the economy purchases hypertrophied raw specialization. Only from 2005 to 2013 the share of industries on mining in the industry has grown from 45,5% to 66,2%. The same concerns the export. If in 2000 the share of machine-technical products was 16,1%, then in 2005 – 3,6%, and in 2013 – 1,9%".
To solve the all complex of problems at the expense of one-time measures (for example, investment with the land not clear where and why or creations of ТASED), in our opinion, it is impossible. The cardinal, integrated approach is necessary. And in this sense we support the proposal of V.K. Zausaev and the member of the Federation Council of Russia V.A. Shtyrov on adoption of the Federal law "About Development of the Far East".
V.T. Shishmakov – Doctor of Economics, professor,
S. N. Shishmakov – is Candidate of Economics, docent.
In March, 2016 the scientists of the Far-Eastern institute of international business have received from the academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.I. Ishayev, V.V. Ivanter and the Doctor of Economics D.B. Kuvalin the monograph "Economy of the Far East and the Baikal region: state approach", prod. Max Press, M., 2016 in which they offer the ways of economic and social development of the macroregion.
Many introduced ideas of the authors deserve special attention and are supported by the scientists of the Khabarovsk territory.
It is necessary to agree with the authors that the basic reasons of negative tendencies in economy and the social sphere of the Far East are:
- lack of the clear strategic objectives of its long-term development;
- inconsistency and imbalance of the efforts of different levels of the power;
- insufficient investment financing in production, infrastructure and the social sphere;
- higher, than on the average across Russia, the cost level in economy;
- low level of competitiveness of many types of economic activity;
- deep structural disproportions in the economy.
According to the academicians, the main priorities of strategic social and economic policy in the Far East of Russia and in the Pacific Rim are:
- change of the model of catching-up development with the model of advancing development;
- implementation of the active investment policy;
- protection of national interests of Russia to the Pacific Rim and strengthening of the state safety at its eastern boundaries;
- Development of the institutional mechanisms and tools considering specifics of the East of Russia.
At the same time, the key methods and mechanisms of this development of the region should be:
- Adoption of the Federal law on development of the Far East;
- implementation of the integrated program approach to development of the macroregion;
- implementation of the system approach on financing of different programs and projects;
- entering of "the not reduced standard rate" of federal investments;
- creation of the developed system of privileges and preferences for business;
- creation of the points and auras of growth creating the high animated effect;
- strengthening of the social policy, creation of the system of privileges and preferences for the population of the Far East;
- access for the locals to "the Far-Eastern capital " – to the analog of maternity capital.
Need and sales opportunity of the chosen development priorities in the Far East considerably will increase its competitive advantages and scales of development, including in general the economy of Russia.
The authors carry to such benefits:
- neighbourhood with the Asia-Pacific countries as a dynamic part of global economy;
- availability of considerable inventories of natural resources;
- possibility of use of transit potential of the territory of the macroregion;
- development of the East of Russia can become the anti-recessionary regulator of national economy in case of situation deterioration in the world economy;
- possibility of use of benefits of the advancing development.
Predicting development of economy of the macroregion, the authors carry to the key parameters in the scenarios of its development the total volume of investment till 2025.
As a result of rather deep analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators of social and economic development of the macroregion for the last 25 years the authors draw the following conclusions:
- the strategy of the last 25 years of gradual transformations in the east of Russia was ineffective;
- Russia should return to the repeatedly repaid Strategy of advancing development of the East of Russia;
- the main long-term goal for the country is achievement of the GDP Central European level per capita and the qualities of life of the population, and for the Far East – an opportunity to have annual rates of a surplus of VRP 2% higher, than on the average across Russia.
E.L. Motrich – Doctor of Economics, professor. In our opinion, the best indicator of wellbeing of economic development of any region is the demography. If it is comfortable to the person to live in the region, he will live and raise the children there. Unfortunately, in the Far East the negative tendency with fixing of the population looks not in the best way.
The Far East of Russia occupies 36,1% of the territory of the country, 4,3% of the population of Russia live here, the density makes about 1 people on sq.km.
In the case of such insignificant share of the population in so extensive territory there is a further population decrease as at the expense of natural wastage, and the migratory outflow. Meanwhile, it was supposed (according to the Target program "Economic and social development of the Far East and Transbaikalye for 1996 – 2005 and till 2010" to reach by 2010, by separate versions of the forecast, from 6,7 million people to 7,4 million people. But such forecasts were overestimated as the regressive nature of natural and migratory movement of the population intensively increased.
The analysis of dynamics of the population confirms the unfortunate trends which have developed during the Post-Soviet period. For the beginning of 2014 in the Far-Eastern federal district 6226,6 thousand people are registered. Reduction of a number of inhabitants for 1991 – 2013 has made 22,7% – 1830,0 thousand people.
For the reform period the Far East on many line problems has lost the priorities of development. The demographic situation began to develop as a result of crisis of the economy and decrease in the living standard of the population, transformation of social and economic system; low level and quality of development of the social sphere, changes of the priorities in valuable orientations. The Far-Eastern federal district has appeared on the way of the stable population decrease caused by the originally migratory outflow. How at the same time not to remember that the hero of one of Márquez's novels spoke: "… We leave from here. Also we will hurry, here nobody loves us".
The Far East of Russia for many years wasn't able to realize the potential opportunities of an increase in population (potential opportunities of an increase in population – the indicator of productivity of its reproduction counted as the relation of the actual increase in population to the sum of natural increase and arrived to the region). If in 1976 – 1980 and in 1981 – 1985 the indicator of productivity of reproduction of the population in the region was 29,8% – 29,9%, then in 1986 – 1990 it has decreased more than twice and has made only 14,1%, and since 1991 and till present has the negative value caused by the migratory outflow of the population.
The dynamics of migratory outflow looks as follows: in 1991 – 1995 – 711,3 thousand people, 1996 – 2000 – 161,3 thousand people, 2001 – 2005 – 447,2 thousand people, 2006 – 2010 – 226,2 thousand people, 2011 – 2013 – 70,7 thousand persons have left out of the borders of the Far East. The provided data show the changeable importance of volumes of migratory outflow of the population.
As a result, in the subjects of the Far-Eastern federal district there is a destruction of demographic potential: The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 1991 – 2013 has lost every seventh inhabitant, the Primorsk and Khabarovsk regions – the sixth, the Jewish autonomous region – the fifth, the Amur region – the fourth, the Kamchatka territory and the Sakhalin region – the third, the Magadan region and the Chukotka autonomous area – practically every second.
The positive problem resolution of reproduction has in the last two years allowed V.V. Putin state the conviction in the Message of 2014 that the demographic programs have proved its efficiency. Nevertheless, we should recognize that the process of depopulation in the region has not stopped as the positive natural increase has been provided in 2012 with the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and in insignificant degree the Kamchatka and Khabarovsk territories and Chukotka. In 2013 it became positive in the minimum sizes in the Amur and Magadan regions. But, at the same time, the crude birth rate on the Far East in 2012 – 2013 has very slightly exceeded the indicator of 1991 (13,7 ‰ – in 1991, 13,9 ‰ – in 2012 and 13,95 ‰ – in 2013) but remains below simple reproduction of the population. The happened surge in the birth rate is caused by the more populous generation of potential parents of the 1990th of birth and the population policy of the last years, concerning the maternity capital and certain privileges to the families having the second and the subsequent children now. Further birth rate cannot increase for the objective reasons: the reproductive age is entered by the poorly populated generation which is given rise in the years of demographic crisis.
The risk of demographic development of the Far East increases migratory outflow of the population. As it was noted above, the Far-Eastern federal district has lost the appeal caused by a social and economic inequality between the regions of Russia. Till 1989 the Far East was one of the leading regions in Russia according to the income. In the conditions of the developed social and economic inequality between the regions of Russia the maintenance of worthy standard of living is not provided to the Far-Easterners. To pertinently remember the words from the most drama work of F.M. Dostoyevskiy "A note of the dead house" who has sharp-sightedly noticed: "… The highest and sharpest characteristic line of our people is a sense of justice and its thirst". All the Far-Eastern territorial subjects of the Russian Federation as a result of increased cost of the fixed set of consumer goods and services get to the first twenty of the most expensive regions of the country. Therefore to calculate today that the migration flow will turn in severe climatic conditions of the Far East with the lowered level of material security unreasonably. In a migratory exchange of the population with the regions of Russia the Far East remains in all the increasing loss. In 2002 a number of leaving was more than arrived by 56,5%, in 2010 – by 89,5%, in 2013 by 1,5 times. For leaving the Far-Eastern federal district the centers of gravity in Russia are the most preferable the North-Western federal district, the Southern federal district and the Central federal district.
Results of the conducted survey in July, 2014 in Khabarovsk have shown that 39,5% of respondents would like to leave the region, and practically nobody called the place of expected living the subjects of the Far East. In an exchange of the population with the territorial subjects of the Russian Federation productivity of migration for the Far East quite low also tends to the further reduction: in 2002 to 100 people who leaved the Far East, arrived to the region were 64 people, in 2013 – 56 people.
As a result of natural wastage of the population and migratory outflow the age structure of the population is deformed, the number of economically active population is reduced that, in total, is a risk factor for social and economic development of the region and the homeland security of Russia at the eastern boundaries. The share of persons is more senior than working-age in the structure of population on the Far East on the All-Union census of 1989 made 10,4%, on the following All-Russian census of 2002 – 15,4%, in 2010 – 18,2%. Thus, only between the last All-Russian population censuses the specific weight of this group has increased by 18,2%. The provided data are the average indicators. Actually age structure of the population is depending on that, city it or the rural zone what place is taken by the specific settlement in the dynamic number of change of the population. There is a regularity: the rural population is, as a rule, more senior than the city; the more intensively outflow of the population from the territory, the is more in the structure of the remained population of the persons of advanced age and, on the contrary, than the settlement is "younger" and the inhabitants living in it, the higher in the structure of its population the share of persons of younger age groupes and the able-bodied population are more sustainable. The aging of population became characteristic feature of dynamics of the age structure of the population of the Far East.
Aging of the population confirms still the fact of increase in the average age of population: 29,5 years – in 1979; 30,4 years – in 1989; 33,9 – in 2002; 37,3 – in 2012.
If not to slow down the process of aging, then in the near future it will lead to the further recession of specific weight of the able-bodied population up to 59,5% in 2015, 57,6% by 2030, and the region will not cope with the solution of perspective tasks of social and economic development.
In case of the developed demographic and migratory situation and in the conditions of inequality of the regions of the Russian Federation on the level and quality of life it is possible to assume that in the Russian Far East the dynamics of population will be steadily negative. The extensive Far-Eastern space on prospect can remain sparsely populated that is harmful not only for the Far East, but also for Russia in general as the dynamics of population in neighboring countries increases: in provinces of the North-Eastern China the number of inhabitants can make by 2025 130 million people – 132 million people, in Mongolia – 4,6 million people, Northern Korea – 32,1 million people, the Republic of Korea – 50,8 million persons. In Japan the population, despite the appeared tendency of its reduction because of an excess of death rate over the birth rate, in 2030 can make 123 million people and in 2050 – 111,5 million people.
It is not simple to change the motivations of migratory behavior which are originally created at the population. Therefore we believe that the Far East has not turned into the station with the decreasing population, it is necessary:
1) to raise a role and value of cash incomes (real and nominal); to provide social payments taking into account district coefficients;
2) to overcome a factor of economic remoteness from the Center. Here it is possible to offer several aspects:
2.1 to provide preferential journey aviation and by the railways to the all age groupes of citizens of the Far-Eastern federal district to the vacation spots and treatments;
2.2 to expand geography of flights;
2.3 to revive the Law "About Veterans" and to realize the Program of the single social card of the citizen of Russia extending the action of privileges for pensioners in scales of all the country;
2.4 to broadcast the TV programs which are especially concerning the political, economic and social life in the country to the Far East in convenient (but not in the night) time (let they will be in record);
3) to provide forming in the region of comfortable conditions of accommodation, for this purpose it is necessary:
3.1 improvement of transport infrastructure between the settlements;
3.2 increase in the size of living space at 1 people, taking into account more long stay in the rooms in the conditions of the severe Far-Eastern climate;
3.3 implementation of the use of rent housing;
3.4 to grant to young families the public non-interest loan for purchase of the apartment or the house.
Perhaps, all this package of measures would be reasonable to be "laid" in the special Federal law "About Development of the Far East".
Taking into account discussion of the declared reports on the agenda participants of the meeting have come to the following conclusions:
It is necessary to carry the low potential of social and economic growth to the problems of economy of Russia. It is connected with exhaustion of the previous model which was lashed to availability of free capacities and allowances of the labor market. Now the new model with the new approaches aimed, first of all, at the development of a human capital and institutional changes is necessary.
Meanwhile, according to the leading scientists, in Russia there is "an economy of peripheral capitalism" which is characterized by support for the raw export, dependence on the foreign finance and investments, close connection of the power and business, a big role of administrative and corruption rent. In such situation the dynamic, accelerated development of national economy with a support on internal resources becomes problematic. In particular it can negatively be reflected in economic and social situation of the Far East as the territories of pioneer development, besides closely adjoining to the Asia-Pacific countries considering the Far East, first of all, as a supplier of natural resources. Due to the above integrated, paternalistic and innovative (national) approach with a support first of all on internal sources of development is necessary.
Participants of "the round table" consider necessary:
1. To recommend to the Ministry for development of the Russian Far East of the Russian Federation to develop and make in the Government of the Russian Federation offers on decrease in the federal tax burden of products made in the macroregion, first of all, in the power and transport sphere.
2. To suggest the authorities of regional and local self-government to accelerate the development of offers on ensuring the infrastructure and social arrangement of the plots of land to the citizens who have shown willingness to receive in a use 1 hectare of land in the Far East.
3. To support the proposal of the member of the Federation Council of Russia V.A. Shtyrov on the project development of the Federal law "About Development of the Far East". To the workgroup members on the project development of the specified Federal Law – to V.K. Zausayev, E.N. Galichanin, P.Ya. Baklanov to take an active part in the project development of the law taking into account opinions and proposals of the participants of debating club.
4. To send for data the resolution of the meeting of debating club to the Ministry for development of the Russian Far East of the Russian Federation, regional authorities, and also to the mass media.