Isaev Artem G.

The article solves the problem of quantitative analysis of the reactions of regional dynamics to changes in external demand, including shock ones. Two sectors are distinguished in the economy of the region within the framework of the export base theory: specialized activities determine the base sector, whose products make up regional exports; the total of other industries is considered as a non-base sector - servicing industries, whose products are the subject of outgoing foreign trade transactions, and local demand. The identifi of the base sector is carried out traditionally, using a simple localization coeffi Estimates of the multiplicative effects for the gross regional product and economic employment generated by the branches of the basic sector were obtained for the model region, the Far Eastern constituent entity of the Russian Federation, Khabarovsk Territory. The research tool is the intersectoral balance model, the data for which are obtained by regionalizing the indicators of the national input-output tables using the method of Flegg localization coeffi (FLQ+) modifi by the authors. The quantitative identifi of the estimated multiplicative effects structure in the sector projection was carried out, which made it possible to identify the directions and magnitude of the impulses generated by external demand. The premise of limited labor resources has determined the trajectories of diversifi of the basic sector of the region. The criteria for the inclusion of industries in the sector were: proximity of the values of localization coeffi to a single threshold, comparative superiority of the values of the multipliers of gross value added, comparative «lag» of the values of employment multipliers. It is shown that, in the conditions of the Khabarovsk Territory, the prospects for expanding the basic sector are associated with the inclusion of mining in its composition. The obtained research results can serve as a platform for the formation of regional policy measures aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth in the region.